Everyone is buying Checks except me...

I'm buying @jackbutcher 1/1s. Here's why...

Checks have all the ingredients to become a top-tier project:

1. Strong team

2. Powerful meme

3. Dedicated community

4. Quality product w/ constant iteration

5. Favorable supply/demand dynamics (the burn)

   

Furthermore... somebody is going to be this cycle's XCOPY and people will call their work overvalued all the way up. It's too early to make this claim for Jack but it's not out of the question. I decided I needed some exposure to Jack's work!

Checks can run hard or crash hard. There are many speculators invested and no one knows how the burn will play out. The floor could be 10 ETH or 0.4 ETH two weeks from now. Buying now is a gamble... so I looked into adjacent bets, hoping to find a better risk/reward.

Jack has two other large collections, Opepen and Merge, but they were pumping like crazy too. I thought damn... do I have to YOLO into Checks or risk watching them moon for eternity on the sidelines?

I then came across Jack's @foundation page. BINGO! Shockingly, there were multiple 1/1s sitting at 4-9 ETH — the price of a few Checks. I was 🤏 close to starting the auction on one until I decided to first look through his other work...

Jack has a few other collections:

• <>

• VV0

• Netvvork

• CHRCTRS

• Binary Value

• Foundation drops

Virtually none of these had any volume or listings... they were perfect candidates for stink bids.

I opened every NFT on OpenSea and manually sent a bid ranging between 0.25-1 ETH... hoping it would email ping someone and they'd accept. I was 80% through the bids when I got a Metama$k error... Wtf? I checked my wallet and realized was out of WETH... two of the bids hit!

I bought two 1/1/10s from Jack's genesis collection for 1.5 ETH total... less than the cost of one Check. These NFTs sold for 7.37 and 6.1 ETH in Mar 2021... about 1/3rd the price of a @cryptopunksnfts at the time. I got super lucky, but there may still be some great deals...

Jack's 1/1s are undervalued using art comps. Recent XCOPY 1/1s sales are ~500 ETH & MAX PAIN has a 5.9k ETH MCAP. Game theory-focused artist, Pak, 1/1s sold for ~$1M before their $92M "The Merge" sale. OSF’s 1/1s sell for ~50 ETH & the Rektguy MCAP is 10k ETH.

Remember, Jack has a 1/1 for sale with a 4 ETH reserve and Checks MCAP is 35.2k ETH. The approximate MCAP ratios for large edition collections to 1/1s for the aforementioned artists are:

• XCOPY: 12x

• Pak: 92x

• OSF: 200x

• Jack Butcher: 8800x

The ratio climbs based on the large collection's activity but the discrepancy between Jack and the others is HUGE. Which invites the question... why are Jack's 1/1s so cheap? The simple answer is money hasn't flowed back to Jack's rarer work yet... but maybe there's more to it.

Checks may not bring value to Jack's other art. What if Checks are just a degen-fueled pump and dump? What if people only care about the Checks game theory and meme? Who knows 🤷‍♂️... there's definitely interest in large editions now and that $ may never flow to 1/1s.

A couple of savvy collectors, @Kenshiro_NFT and @Shatt_Eth, recently collected Jack's 1/1s which should give prospective buyers confidence. We also may see a shift in perspective as Checks' rarity mechanics come into play. When ppl begin spending $100k+ to get a 1/1 or 1/x Check, attention should head to Jack's other 1/1s. My guess is the next 1/1 auction sells WAY above the current 1/1 floor and prices will rise. Jack now has thousands of ppl incentivized to pump up prices too which may help.

There's so much to think about... which funny enough, is the goal of Checks. The key takeaway of this post is there may be a unique opportunity to collect Jack's rarer work at a low cost relative to Checks.

You can visit the @visualizevalue OpenSea and Foundation pages here to look through the pieces.

Lastly, here are some lessons from this thread:

1. Have a trading plan and stick to it

2. When something pumps, look for underpriced adjacent assets

3. Place stink bids on low-volume items... you never know what may hit

Thank you for reading!

If you've made it this far, I'd love to get your perspective on...

Are Checks overvalued or undervalued? What about Jack's other work?